Here, I was forced to show only countries with over 1,000 cases. What’s the situation?Īs predicted, the number of cases has exploded in dozens of countries. And we can do all that while considering the rest of the economy too. But it will be close, and eventually back to normal. It might not be back to normal immediately. Then, we will get more and more freedoms back. We will be locked in for weeks, not months. If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual. All of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time. And we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
The world has never learned as fast about anything, ever. If we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths. And that might not even eliminate further waves of infections. If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic. Our healthcare system is already collapsing. When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away: How should we think about the economic and social impacts?.What does a good coronavirus strategy look like?.What’s the one thing that matters now: Time.Here’s what we’re going to cover today, again with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources: Others, like the US, UK, or Switzerland, have dragged their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures. Some countries, like France, Spain or Philippines, have since ordered heavy lockdowns. Why?Įvery country is asking the same question: How should we respond? The answer is not obvious to them. Yet many countries are still not doing much. Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: “ This coronavirus thing is not a big deal” to declaring the state of emergency. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way.
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